This Simple Forex Strategy Has a 100% Win Rate (So Far)
Back in 2021, I created a trading strategy built around specific market conditions and a concept I learned from Larry Williams. I later shared the full development process on my YouTube channel.
Since then, the results have been impressive.
Every trade the strategy has taken since its release has been profitable — although it’s important to note that it doesn’t trade very often. In fact, it has only produced 10 trades since October 2021, but all 10 were winners.
While a larger sample size would be more statistically significant, the performance has been strong enough that it’s worth revisiting.
Below are the rules, results, and updated performance data.
Strategy Overview
This strategy trades the USD/CAD pair on the daily chart and looks for three specific conditions before entering a trade.
Entry Rules
A trade is triggered when all of the following occur:
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It is Trading Day 8 of the month.
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The current close is lower than the close five days ago.
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The Williams %R oscillator (14 period) is slightly oversold — below the midline.
When these conditions align, the strategy buys at the open of the next bar.
Exit Rules
The strategy uses two exit conditions:
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Stop Loss: 350 pips (fixed).
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Profit Exit:
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Hold the trade for at least 7 days.
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After 7 days, exit on the first profitable close.
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This means every trade stays open for a minimum of one week before it can be closed.
How the Strategy Was Developed
During development, three key components were optimized:
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The best trading day of the month
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The delay before exiting profitable trades
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The optimal stop-loss level
After testing multiple variations, the following settings produced the strongest results:
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Trading Day: 8
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Profit delay: 7 days
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Stop loss: 350 pips
Performance Results
Recent Data (Oct 2021 – July 2023)
Since the strategy was released:
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10 trades
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10 winners
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100% win rate
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Average trade: $1,491 (1 lot)
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Includes approximately $40 per trade in costs
The equity curve shows consistent growth, with every trade closing in profit.
It’s also worth noting that this is a long-only strategy, meaning it only buys.
Out-of-Sample Data (2018 – 2023)
When tested on data that was not used during development, the results were still strong:
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27 trades
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26 winners
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96% win rate
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Average trade: $906
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Largest loss: 350-pip stop loss
Interestingly, during this period the USD/CAD market moved mostly sideways, showing that the strategy’s edge isn’t simply due to a long-term uptrend.
Full Backtest (2008 – 2023)
Using the entire dataset:
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77 trades
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5 losses
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93.5% win rate
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Average trade: $765
The strategy performed well across different market conditions — including both rising and falling markets.
Why There’s No Short Side
During testing, I attempted to build a short-selling version of the strategy.
However, I couldn’t find a reliable edge using the same “trading day of the month” concept on the short side. While it would be ideal to have both long and short signals, the long strategy alone has produced strong results.
A Key Lesson: The Watch Period
Not every strategy makes it into my live trading portfolio.
After developing a strategy, I always put it through a watch period lasting several months. During that time, I monitor performance without trading it live.
Only strategies that continue to meet strict criteria make the cut.
Fortunately, this one did.
Final Thoughts
This trading-day-of-the-month strategy has continued to perform well years after its release. While the trade frequency is low, the consistency has been notable.
More importantly, it demonstrates that calendar-based market patterns — when tested properly — can provide a real edge rather than just curve-fitting.
For traders looking to explore rule-based strategies, this approach may be worth testing further.
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